Shaping the future of an enhanced air-rail cooperation

In the context of the European Green Deal’s goal to reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % by 2050 , current discussions focus on a potential shift from air to rail on short-haul connections. The aspects to be considered in this context are manifold and include future investment and policy design. Here, external costs of both rail and air development, future noise exposure, and the integration of new technology options resulting in efficiency improvements should be taken into account. Further, it is important to optimise complementary aspects of interconnected air-rail travel chains, such as faster airport access times, additional feeder options for airlines to hub airports, or more airport capacities for high-revenue long-range connections.

The Modus project focuses on some of these aspects by assessing the performance of a multimodal, integrated European transport system. The analyses include the identification of factors that influence passengers’ journey decisions. Among other elements, price, travel times, and service quality have a crucial influence on modal choice. The variations in travel times or market shares are investigated across four different scenarios, ranging from a significant shift of traffic from air to rail to a more decentralised and remote air transport network. One of the scenarios assumes scheduled collective travel of under 500 km within the EU to be carbon-neutral by 2030 . Accordingly, in order to assess feasible modal shares of air and rail in European connections, careful consideration of related external costs is required, such as for construction and maintenance of infrastructure. These aspects will be subject to future research at Bauhaus Luftfahrt.